Trump’s 2025 Tariff Timeline: Who’s targeted and what’s at stake?
- Krishna Priya
- Nov 6
- 25 min read
Donald Trump’s second term has unleashed a rapid series of trade measures, from steep tariff hikes to targeted sanctions, reshaping the global economy in 2025. This article serves as your complete Trump 2025 tariff timeline, detailing each announcement, industry impact, and geopolitical reaction in a clear, month-by-month format.
November
November 5, 2025: Supreme Court Hears Tariff Authority Challenge
The US Supreme Court heard oral arguments challenging Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs on over 100 countries. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that alternative legal authorities would maintain tariffs even if IEEPA powers are struck down.
November 3, 2025: Trump Signs Executive Order Implementing China Deal
President Trump formally signed an executive order maintaining suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on China until November 10, 2026, officially codifying the trade agreement.
Effect on India: The US-China trade deal de-escalation moderated immediate tariff escalation concerns but created mixed implications for India. While Indian exporters had initially hoped for increased US market share due to higher Chinese tariffs (130% vs 50% on India), the reduced tariffs on China limited this advantage. However, Indian equity markets opened higher on October 30 on optimism over the deal and Fed rate cuts, with indices gaining 0.67% as investors anticipated reduced global trade war volatility. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated on November 4 that India-US trade negotiations are "going on very well" with both sides "converging on most issues" as they work toward finalizing the first tranche of their bilateral trade agreement by year-end.
October
October 30, 2025: US-China Trade Deal Finalized in Busan
President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a historic trade agreement during bilateral talks in Busan, South Korea. The US reduced the fentanyl-related tariff from 20% to 10%, bringing overall tariffs on Chinese goods from 57% down to approximately 47% (effective November 10, 2026), and cancelled the 100% additional tariff scheduled for November 1. China committed to suspending new rare earth export controls announced October 9, issuing general licenses for rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony and graphite, resuming large-scale US soybean purchases (minimum 12 MMT in Nov-Dec 2025; 25 MMT annually 2026-2028), and suspending all retaliatory tariffs and non-tariff measures imposed since March 4, 2025. Both nations suspended port fee disputes, with all tariff suspensions extended until November 10, 2026.
October 20, 2025: Trump Threatens China with 155% Tariffs
During a White House meeting with Australian Prime Minister, President Trump warned of 155% total tariff rates on China (55% existing + 100% additional) if no trade deal is reached by November 1. Trump stated "China's paying 55% and a potential 155% come November 1st unless we make a deal," while confirming plans to meet President Xi Jinping in South Korea and revealing he had accepted an invitation to visit China in early 2026. Simultaneously, Trump signed an $8.5 billion critical minerals agreement with Australia to reduce dependence on Chinese rare earth supplies.
Effect on India: The China tariff escalation created opportunities for Indian exporters to capture diverted trade flows, though China's rare earth export controls posed threats to India's automobile and electronics sectors. Indian markets showed volatility amid global trade war concerns, though analysts noted India's positioning as a manufacturing alternative could benefit if US-China tensions continue.
October 16, 2025: Trump Signs Proclamation on Medium and Heavy-Duty Truck Tariffs
President Trump officially signed a Section 232 proclamation imposing 25% tariffs on Class 3-8 trucks (including semi-trailers and large pickup trucks) and truck parts, while imposing 10% tariffs on buses and motorcoaches, effective November 1, 2025. CUSMA-compliant trucks are tariffed only on their non-American parts content, while US manufacturers receive credits to offset duties on imported parts. The proclamation provides discretion to reduce 50% steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico to no lower than 25% for companies investing in US automotive industries.
October 14, 2025: Timber/Lumber/Furniture Tariffs Take Effect
The Section 232 tariffs announced on September 29 officially took effect, imposing 10% tariffs on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on upholstered wooden furniture (increasing to 30% on January 1, 2026), and 25% on kitchen cabinets and vanities (increasing to 50% on January 1, 2026). Country-specific exceptions limit the United Kingdom to maximum 10% above MFN rates, while the European Union and Japan face maximum 15% combined rates.
Effect on India: Indian wood and furniture exporters gained significant competitive advantage as the new tariffs replaced existing 50% punitive duties with lower rates. Kitchen cabinet exports ($568.3 million) saw tariffs reduced from 50% to 25%, upholstered furniture ($83.3 million) from 50% to 25%, and softwood lumber from 50% to 10%, positioning Indian exporters to capture greater US market share in 2026.
October 10, 2025: Trump Announces 100% Additional Tariff on China
President Trump announced via Truth Social that the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports beginning November 1, 2025, bringing the total effective tariff rate on Chinese goods to 130% when combined with existing 30% duties. The escalation was triggered by China's new export controls on rare earth minerals, where China controls 70% of global supply. Trump declared "The United States will impose an additional 100% Tariff on China, above and beyond the Tariff that they are currently paying," while also announcing new export controls on "all critical software" to China starting November 1. The announcement effectively ends the trade truce that had been in effect, with Trump suggesting he may cancel a planned meeting with President Xi Jinping later this month as US-China trade relations reach a new low.
October 1, 2025: Previously Announced Tariffs Take Effect
The September 25 tariff announcements became effective, implementing 100% tariffs on branded and patented pharmaceutical products (with exemptions for companies building US plants), 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks under Section 232 authority.
September
September 29, 2025: Trump Announces Section 232 Timber/Lumber Tariffs + 100% Film Tariffs
Timber/Lumber Proclamation: President Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on timber, lumber, and wood products under Section 232 "national security" authority, effective October 14, 2025. The new duties include 10% on softwood timber and lumber, 25% on upholstered wooden furniture (increasing to 30% on January 1, 2026), and 25% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities (increasing to 50% on January 1, 2026). Country-specific caps limit the United Kingdom to maximum 10% above MFN rates, while the European Union and Japan face maximum 15% combined tariff rates.
Effect on India: Trump's timber/lumber tariffs provided major relief for Indian wood exporters by reducing existing punitive tariffs. Kitchen cabinets exports ($568.3 million) saw tariffs drop from 50% to 25%, upholstered furniture exports ($83.3 million) from 50% to 25%, and softwood lumber from 50% to 10%. Indian wood and furniture stocks showed positive momentum as the $654.8 million affected export sector gained competitive advantage over China and Vietnam.
100% Film Tariff Threat: Trump announced on Truth Social he would impose a 100% tariff on all films produced overseas, claiming the US film industry was being "stolen" by other countries offering production incentives. The announcement did not specify an implementation date or clarify how it would apply to partially foreign-produced films.
September 25, 2025: Trump Announces Major Section 232 Tariff Expansion
President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs under Section 232 "national security" authority, effective October 1, 2025: 100% tariffs on branded and patented pharmaceutical products (with exemptions for companies building US plants), 50% on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks.
The announcement creates an alternative legal framework independent of IEEPA powers being challenged in the Supreme Court. Trump specifically stated pharmaceutical companies can avoid tariffs by committing to build manufacturing plants in America, offering a pathway for relief through domestic investment. This represents significant expansion of Section 232 authority beyond its traditional steel and aluminum coverage.
Effect on india
Trump's announcement of 100% pharmaceutical tariffs triggered a sharp 2% decline in Indian pharma stocks on September 26, with all 20 members of the Nifty Pharma index falling. Sun Pharmaceutical fell about 3% as the most exposed to branded drugs in the US market, while Dr. Reddy's, Cipla, and Lupin showed significant declines. However, industry experts noted the tariffs specifically target patented and branded products, potentially sparing India's $10 billion generic medicines export sector. The rupee initially rebounded 6 paise to 88.70 against the dollar on trade talks optimism but remained volatile amid broader tariff uncertainties.
September 20, 2025: Government Files Supreme Court Brief Defending Tariff Authority
The Trump administration filed its opening brief with the Supreme Court defending its tariff authority under IEEPA, with Solicitor General D. John Sauer arguing the tariffs promote "peace and unprecedented economic prosperity" and are essential for addressing economic threats to national security.
September 17, 2025: Supreme Court Sets November 5 for Tariff Case
The US Supreme Court officially scheduled oral arguments on Trump's tariff authority for November 5, 2025, an extremely fast timeline reflecting the urgent economic implications. The case challenges Trump's use of IEEPA to impose broad-based tariffs, with $750 billion to $1 trillion in collected tariffs potentially at stake. If the Court rules against the administration, the government may be required to refund hundreds of billions in duties, fundamentally altering Trump's entire reciprocal tariff framework.
September 17, 2025: CEA Predicts Tariff Resolution by November
India's Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran expressed optimism that penal tariffs could be resolved within 8-10 weeks, stating "I do believe the penal tariff will not be there after November 30." He indicated ongoing discussions aimed at reducing the reciprocal tariff from 25% to approximately 15%, describing this as his "personal feeling" based on recent diplomatic momentum while clarifying he had no insider information on specific negotiations.
September 16, 2025: India-US Trade Talks Resume in New Delhi
Formal trade negotiations between India and the US resumed in New Delhi, marking the first talks since the 50% tariff implementation on August 27. A US delegation led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch met India's chief negotiator Rajesh Agrawal, with India's Commerce Ministry describing discussions as "positive and forward-looking." Both sides agreed to "intensify efforts to achieve early conclusion" of a mutually beneficial trade agreement, with the sixth round of negotiations to be scheduled soon after the fifth round was postponed in August due to the tariff crisis.
Effect on India
BSE Sensex surged 594.95 points (0.73%) to 82,380.69, and Nifty 50 jumped 169.90 points (0.68%) to 25,239.10 as formal India-US trade talks resumed, with export-oriented and textile stocks leading gains.
September 9, 2025: Trump Urges EU to Impose 100% Tariffs on India and China
President Trump urged European Union officials to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India as part of a strategy to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war. The proposal aimed to coordinate Western allies in applying economic pressure on countries purchasing Russian oil.
September 7, 2025: More Russia-Related Tariff Threats
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called for additional sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil to ensure the "collapse" of the Russian economy. When asked about another round of Russia sanctions targeting India, Trump responded: "Yeah, I am," signaling potential escalation beyond the current 50% tariff rate.
September 5, 2025: Unconfirmed IT Outsourcing Threat Triggers Market Panic
Far-right activist Laura Loomer claimed on social media that "President Trump is now considering blocking US IT companies from outsourcing their work to Indian companies," promoting "Make Call Centers American Again." This was an unverified claim by Loomer, who is not part of the Trump administration or a policymaker, though her influence has been growing within MAGA circles. The claim coincided with existing discussions about the proposed HIRE Act in Congress, which threatens a 25% tax on payments to foreign firms for outsourcing.
Effect on India: The unconfirmed rumor triggered the most significant single-day IT sector crash since the tariff saga began. The Nifty IT Index plummeted 1.49%, becoming the worst-performing sector, with a sharp 2.5% intraday fall from day's highs when the reports first surfaced. The market reaction highlighted the sector's vulnerability to even unverified policy rumors, given their heavy US client dependence.
September 4, 2025: Trump Creates Framework for "Aligned Partners" Tariff Relief
President Trump signed an Executive Order creating the Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners (PTAAP) framework. Starting September 8, over 45 categories of goods—such as nickel, gold, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and certain farm products—will qualify for zero tariffs if supplied by countries with reciprocal trade and security deals with the U.S. Existing partners like Japan and the EU retain reduced tariffs, while others can access similar terms through new agreements.
The framework essentially creates a two-tier global trading system where "aligned partners" receive preferential access while non-aligned countries like India, Brazil, and China continue facing punitive rates up to 50%. This represents Trump's most significant attempt to use economic leverage for broader geopolitical alignment.
September 3, 2025: Trump Appeals to Supreme Court for Emergency Review
Trump filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court, seeking expedited review of the Federal Appeals Court's August 29 ruling that struck down IEEPA-based tariffs. The administration warned that delaying a ruling could result in $750 billion to $1 trillion in collected tariffs potentially needing unwinding. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated the government would need to refund approximately "half the tariffs", over $210 billion, if the Court rules against them.
August
Industries Affected: Textiles, Gems and Jewellery, Pharmaceuticals, Automobiles, Electronics, Chemicals, Agriculture, Seafood, Dairy, Footwear, Steel, Aluminum, Machinery, Medical Devices, Telecom Equipment, Solar Energy.
August 29, 2025: Federal Appeals Court Rules Trump's IEEPA Tariffs Illegal & Complete Elimination of Global De Minimis Exemption
The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7-4 that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act in imposing the "Liberation Day" tariffs, asserting that “the power of the purse belongs to Congress.” The decision, which stays the universal 10% and country-specific “reciprocal” tariffs until October 14, 2025, allows time for a Supreme Court appeal. Trump denounced the ruling as “highly partisan” and warned it would “literally destroy the United States of America.”
On the same day, Trump permanently ended the 87-year-old de minimis exemption, which had allowed packages under $800 to enter the US duty-free. Nearly 1.4 billion annual packages (over $64 billion in value), 92% of all US cargo shipments, now face full tariffs. During a six-month transition, postal services may pay flat fees of $80–$200 per package, after which only percentage-based tariffs will apply. This change is estimated to cost consumers $10.9 billion annually, or $136 per household, and will particularly burden small businesses.
August 27, 2025 – 50% Trump Tariff Officially Implemented
The United States formally issued a “notice of implementation” to New Delhi, enacting an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods for its purchase of Russian oil. This brought the total tariff on affected Indian exports to a prohibitive 50%, combining the earlier 25% “reciprocal” tariff (effective August 7) and the new penal levy for Russian oil trade (effective August 27).
Effect on India
Roughly 55% of India’s total merchandise exports to the US, worth an estimated $48 billion, are now subject to these steep duties, according to government estimates.
The actual duty incidence, including MFN and sector-specific tariffs, may reach as high as 63% in areas such as textiles and apparel.
Indian exports to the US are projected to drop from $86 billion in FY25 to as little as $49.6 billion in FY26, a plunge of about 43%.
Labour-intensive and vulnerable sectors, including textiles, apparel, leather, footwear, and gems & jewellery, are highlighted as among the worst-hit.
Products already in transit were allowed a three-week window for entry into the US at lower pre-tariff rates.
The Indian government reiterated its commitment to shield vulnerable groups, like farmers, from the economic fallout, and signaled continued negotiations with the US as the situation evolves.
August 17, 2025: Trump Signals Possible Reprieve for India on Russian Oil Tariff President Trump indicated that the US may reconsider imposing secondary tariffs on countries, including India, that continue to purchase Russian oil. While an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods related to Russian oil is set to take effect on August 27, Trump acknowledged in remarks aboard Air Force One, "Well, he (Russian President Vladimir Putin) lost an oil client, so to speak, which is India, which was doing about 40 percent of the oil. China, as you know, is doing a lot... And if I impose what's called a secondary sanction or a secondary tariff, it would be very devastating from their standpoint. If I have to do it, I'll do it. Maybe I won't have to do it," Trump said on Friday.
Effect on India
Following Trump's Alaska summit with Putin, there was cautious optimism in Indian markets that the additional 25% tariff scheduled for August 27 might be reconsidered. The rupee saw some relief, and export-oriented stocks gained marginally on hopes that Trump's satisfaction with the talks might lead to a softer stance on India's Russian oil purchases.
August 16, 2025: US-Russia Alaska Summit and Steel/Semiconductor Tariff Announcement
President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska on August 15-16 but reached no concrete agreement on Ukraine. Trump said he would not negotiate for Ukraine directly but aimed to bring both sides to the table. Despite earlier threats, Trump expressed satisfaction with the talks, calling the progress "great," though no immediate cease-fire was achieved.
Following the summit, Trump announced that tariffs on steel and semiconductors will be imposed in the coming weeks, with initial lower rates set to support US manufacturing infrastructure. Trump highlighted that these tariffs, initially planned at 25% as announced back in February, could be doubled if deemed necessary to protect US industry from foreign competition, signaling a readiness to escalate measures in response to global trade developments.
August 12, 2025: China Tariff Truce Extended - 90 Days of Continued Diplomacy
President Trump signed Executive Order 14314 on August 11, extending the US-China tariff truce for an additional 90 days until November 10, 2025, just hours before the previous agreement was set to expire at 12:01 AM on August 12. Had that happened, the U.S. could have ratcheted up taxes on Chinese imports from an already high 30%, and Beijing could have responded by raising retaliatory levies on US exports to China. Trump announced the extension on Truth Social, stating: "I have just signed an Executive Order that will extend the Tariff Suspension on China for another 90 days" and that "all other elements of the Agreement will remain the same".
August 11, 2025: No tariff on Gold
US President Donald Trump confirmed via social media on Monday that no tariffs will be imposed on gold imports. The announcement comes amid growing speculation and uncertainty about the status of gold bar imports into the US, after several days of mixed signals from government agencies. The statement aims to put an end to the confusion and reassure market participants.
“Gold will not be Tariffed!” Trump said on his Truth Social platform, without providing further details.
August 6, 2025: India - Russia Sanctions
Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on India specifically for purchasing Russian oil, bringing total US tariffs on Indian goods to 50%. The measure, effective August 27, was explicitly framed as secondary sanctions aimed at reducing Russia's oil revenues and forcing a Ukrainian peace agreement. India's foreign ministry condemned the tariffs as "unjustified and unreasonable," while Trump claimed the action delivered a "big blow" to Russia's economy. The tariff brings India to the highest tariff rate globally alongside Brazil at 50%, making India face steeper duties than China (30%), Vietnam (20%), or Indonesia (19%).
August 5, 2025: Pharmaceutical and Semiconductor Tariff Announcement
US President Donald Trump announced plans for tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, starting at a low rate but potentially rising to 150% within a year and 250% within 18 months, to encourage domestic production. He also revealed upcoming duties on foreign semiconductors, though details were not specified, in a CNBC interview.
Details on the semiconductor tariffs and the initial pharmaceutical tariff rate were not yet formalized by August 12, pending further executive action.
Effect on India
On August 5, 2025, the Nifty Pharma index dipped 0.83% following Trump’s announcement of new low-rate tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with the threat of escalating to 150% within a year. The next day, August 6, the selloff deepened, Nifty Pharma plunged 2.03%, as investors braced for the possibility of tariffs rising to 250% within 18 months to spur domestic US production.
August 1, 2025: Comprehensive Implementation
Trump implemented sweeping tariffs on 70 countries and territories with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, effective August 7. This represented the culmination of months of negotiations and threats, with countries facing either negotiated rates through bilateral agreements or default punitive levels.
Effect on India:
On August 1, 2025, the US imposed sweeping tariffs on 70 countries, including India, triggering widespread market anxiety. Government estimates indicated approximately $48 billion worth of goods would face the 50% tariff impact, representing a significant portion of India's $87 billion annual exports to America.
The Nifty 50 index declined by 0.82% that day, highlighting investor concerns about India's export prospects and potential earnings pressures due to tougher US trade barriers.
July
Industries Affected: Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Copper, Textiles, Gems and Jewellery, Agriculture, Auto Parts.
July 30-31, 2025: Multiple Major Actions
Tariff Threat Against India:
Though no formal proclamation followed, the post made clear that India faced both a 25% levy and an additional unspecified penalty unless a bilateral deal was finalized by August 1.
Copper Tariffs: Trump imposed 50% Section 232 tariffs on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives effective August 1.
Global De Minimis Elimination: Trump suspended duty-free treatment for low-value shipments from all countries, closing a significant loophole that had allowed billions of dollars in small packages to enter the US without tariffs.
Brazil National Emergency: Trump declared a new national emergency regarding Brazil, imposing a 40% tariff effective August 6, while Treasury sanctioned Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes for "politicized prosecutions" of Bolsonaro.
Canada Escalation: Trump increased tariffs on USMCA non-compliant Canadian goods from 25% to 35% effective August 1, while maintaining exemptions for compliant products.
Tariff on Gold: U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a ruling reclassifying one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars under the tariff code subject to the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” tariff framework, which carried a 39 percent levy on goods from Switzerland. This CBP letter, rather than a direct presidential proclamation, triggered fears that gold imports would face a 39 percent tariff beginning immediately.
July 27, 2025: EU-US Summit Agreement
Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a comprehensive trade agreement in Scotland, reducing EU tariff exposure from 30% to 15%. The deal included zero-for-zero tariffs on strategic products and represented a major diplomatic victory for both sides, preventing a potentially devastating trade war between the US and EU.
Effect on India
The EU-US trade agreement, which reduced EU tariff exposure from 30% to 15%, increased competitive pressure on Indian exporters who continued to face the full 25% tariff rate. This differential treatment put Indian goods at a significant disadvantage compared to European competitors in the US market.
July 22, 2025: Asian Trade Agreements
Trump announced trade deals with Indonesia (19% tariff), the Philippines (19% tariff), and Japan (15% tariff), significantly below their threatened reciprocal rates. The Japan agreement included a formal fact sheet describing the "US-Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement," demonstrating the administration's preference for negotiated solutions over punitive tariffs.
July 15, 2025: Brazil Investigation & Indonesia Agreement
Brazil Section 301 Investigation: USTR launched a comprehensive unfair trade investigation against Brazil covering digital trade and electronic payment services, preferential tariffs, anti-corruption interference, intellectual property protection, ethanol market access, and deforestation regulations deemed discriminatory to US commerce. This investigation laid the groundwork for the more aggressive measures that would follow later in the month.
Indonesia Trade Agreement: Trump announced via Truth Social a bilateral agreement with Indonesia establishing a 19% tariff on all Indonesian exports to the US. This rate represented a significant reduction from the threatened 32% reciprocal tariff originally scheduled under the April 2 executive order. Legal details and implementation timeline were not immediately provided, following the pattern of other Truth Social trade announcements.
July 9, 2025: Brazil Political Ultimatum
Trump sent a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva threatening a 50% tariff unless Brazil ceased prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, marking an unprecedented linkage of trade policy to foreign domestic politics. The letter stated that Brazil's treatment of Bolsonaro was "an international disgrace," demonstrating Trump's willingness to use economic pressure for political objectives beyond traditional trade concerns.
July 8, 2025: Pharmaceutical Tariff Threat
President Trump announced potential tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceuticals during a Cabinet meeting, to be imposed “very soon,” but with a one-to-one-and-a-half-year grace period for companies to adjust.
Impact on India:
On July 8, 2025, the Nifty Pharma index fell just 0.89% after a 200% tariff threat, surprisingly muted given India supplies 20% of the world’s generics and 62% of vaccines. Nearly one-third of its $9 billion pharma exports go to the US, notably from Aurobindo, Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy’s, and Cipla, highlighting the sector’s vulnerability despite the limited immediate market reaction.
July 7, 2025: Extension and New Threats
Trump extended the suspension of country-specific reciprocal tariffs until August 1 while simultaneously posting letters to 14 countries detailing specific tariff rates ranging from 25% to 40% set to take effect August 1. This dual approach of extension and threat illustrated the administration's use of tariff policy as both diplomatic tool and enforcement mechanism.
July 2, 2025: Vietnam Agreement
Trump announced a comprehensive trade deal with Vietnam, reducing the country's tariff exposure from the threatened 46% to 20%, while implementing a 40% tariff on transshipments through Vietnam from third countries. The agreement demonstrated the effectiveness of bilateral negotiations in reducing tariff burdens while addressing trade enforcement concerns.
June
Industries Affected: Steel, Appliances (Refrigerators, Freezers, Washers, Dryers, Dishwashers, Stoves).
June 16, 2025: Steel Derivatives Expansion
The Commerce Department extended steel tariffs to additional derivative products including major appliances such as refrigerators, freezers, washers, dryers, dishwashers, and stoves. This expansion demonstrated the administration's commitment to protecting not just raw material production but entire supply chains involving critical materials.
June 11, 2025: China Deal Claims
Following two days of talks in London, Trump claimed on Truth Social that "OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE," though no legal details were provided and no tariff changes were implemented. Trump also stated that China would supply "FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, UP FRONT," addressing US concerns about Chinese export restrictions. This announcement appeared designed to signal progress while maintaining negotiating pressure.
June 3-4, 2025: Steel and Aluminum Escalation
Trump doubled Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, with the United Kingdom receiving an exemption, maintaining the 25% rate. This escalation was implemented within hours of the announcement, demonstrating the administration's capacity for rapid policy changes. The tariff increase applied to both raw materials and an extensive list of derivative products, from refrigerators and stoves to steel door hinges. BCG estimated the doubling would add $50 billion in tariff costs, significantly impacting US manufacturing sectors dependent on these materials.
Effect on India
The doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% had limited direct impact on Indian steel producers, as less than 1% of India's total steel exports were shipped to the United States. However, the Nifty Metal Index declined on concerns about global trade tensions and potential oversupply from redirected exports flooding international markets.
May
May 28, 2025: Legal Setback and Recovery
The US Court of International Trade delivered a significant blow to Trump's tariff regime, ruling that IEEPA did not grant "unbounded authority" to impose broad-based tariffs and ordering their removal within 10 days. However, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit immediately granted an administrative stay, allowing all tariffs to remain in place during the appeals process.
May 13, 2025: Aircraft Imports Investigation Launched
The Commerce Department filed a Federal Register notice indicating that an investigation began on May 1 into whether imports of commercial aircraft, engines, and parts pose a threat to US national security under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
May 12, 2025: US-China De-escalation
Following intensive negotiations in Geneva, both countries announced a dramatic mutual de-escalation. The US reduced additional tariffs on Chinese goods from 125% to 10% for a 90-day period, while China simultaneously lowered its retaliatory tariffs from 125% to 10%. China also suspended non-tariff countermeasures, including export controls and entity list additions imposed during the April escalation.
May 8, 2025: US-UK Economic Partnership Framework
The White House announced the framework for a US-UK Economic Prosperity Deal (EPD), establishing preferential treatment for the UK within Trump's expanding tariff regime. The agreement included potential UK tariff reductions on US beef and a special quota allowing 100,000 UK vehicles to enter the US at 10% rather than the standard 25% Section 232 automotive tariff. While formal legal details remained unavailable, the framework signaled Trump's willingness to provide allies with preferential access to US markets in exchange for favorable bilateral arrangements.
April
Industries Affected: Textiles, Pharmaceuticals, Electronics, Auto Parts, Gems and Jewellery, Agriculture, Steel.
April 24, 2025: Critical Minerals Initiative
Trump signed Executive Order 14288, "Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources," seeking to advance U.S. leadership in seabed mineral development. This order complemented the Section 232 investigation by promoting domestic mineral production capabilities.
April 17, 2025: Maritime and Seafood Initiatives
Chinese Maritime Targeting: USTR announced Section 301 actions against China's maritime dominance, including phased-in fees on Chinese-built ships, fees on foreign-built car carriers, and restrictions on LNG transport via foreign vessels.
Trump signed Executive Order 14287, "Restoring American Seafood Competitiveness," directing USTR to consider Section 301 investigations into unfair foreign trade practices affecting U.S. fishing companies. The order included a separate proclamation and fact sheet on "unleashing American commercial fishing in the Pacific".
April 12, 2025 - China’s Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect
China’s retaliatory tariff changes, announced on April 11 in response to escalating U.S. trade actions, officially take effect.
April 11, 2025 - Electronics Exemption and China’s Retaliation
The White House issues a memorandum exempting smartphones and other consumer electronics containing semiconductors from the IEEPA-based tariffs announced on April 2 and modified on April 8 and 9, easing concerns in the tech sector.
Meanwhile, China announces fresh retaliatory tariffs to match the U.S.’s 125% rate hike, with the new measures set to take effect on April 12.
April 10, 2025 - Tariff Changes and Retaliations Enforced
The U.S.'s latest tariff changes officially took effect, while China’s retaliatory tariffs, announced on April 4 and 9, also came into force. However, the European Union unexpectedly paused its planned €22 billion counter-tariffs for 90 days, signaling a potential opening for negotiation amid escalating trade tensions.
April 9, 2025 - Global Trade Tensions Spike
The higher, country-specific tariffs announced by Trump on April 2 briefly came into effect. The same day, China raised its own tariff on US goods, bringing the total rate to 84%. Trump then announced in a social media post that the US tariff on Chinese goods would be raised to 125%, effective immediately. A new executive order targeted Chinese ships and cranes to boost U.S. shipbuilding. In retaliation, China raised tariffs by 50% and expanded export controls, while the EU approved €22 billion in counter-tariffs and Canada enforced 25% tariffs on U.S. autos. The day marked a sharp escalation in global economic fragmentation.
April 8, 2025 - Escalation of US-China Tariff War
The White House amends the April 2 executive order to counter-retaliate by imposing an additional 50 percent tariff on imports from China because of China’s 34 percent tariff retaliation announced April 4. This brings the total US tariff increase on imports from China associated with the original April 2 announcement to 84 percent (with sectoral carve-outs) in addition to the 20 percent (no sectoral carve-outs) of February 4 and March 4. The executive order also amends the duty rates of the separate executive order of April 2, ending de minimis shipments from China effective May 2.
April 5, 2025 - Universal Tariff Implementation
Trump’s 10% minimum tariff on nearly all countries and territories takes effect.
Effect on India
By April 7, 2025, investor complacency gave way to full-blown panic as the looming threat of Trump’s tariffs rippled through India’s markets. On that “Black Monday,” the India VIX, the benchmark volatility gauge, exploded by 65% to 22.78, its largest one-day jump in years, reflecting widespread fear and uncertainty. Correspondingly, the Nifty 50 plunged to an intraday low of 21,743, ending the day down 22,161, as traders raced to hedge their portfolios and reduce exposure to export-sensitive sectors. This sudden spike in volatility and steep market decline underscored how quickly sentiment can turn once the reality of policy shocks sets in.
April 4, 2025 - China’s Retaliatory Tariff Announcement
China announces 34 percent tariffs in response to US tariffs announced on April 2. Chinese tariffs take effect on April 10. China also announces new export controls on samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium; an antidumping investigation into US medical CT X-ray tubes; the addition of 11 US companies to the unreliable entity list; export controls on 15 companies; and a ban on imports of Illumina's gene sequencers.
April 3, 2025 - Automobile Tariffs Take Effect
The 25 percent tariffs on automobiles announced on March 26 and imposed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 go into effect. The tariffs on automobile parts are delayed to a future date not later than May 3, 2025. India is not a major automobile exporter to the United States. The primary targets of the auto tariffs were nations like Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico.
Effect on India
April 2, 2025 - Liberation Day Tariff Declaration
On April 2, 2025, Trump declared “Liberation Day” in a Rose Garden ceremony, announcing a 10% universal tariff on all non-sanctioned countries starting April 5, and additional “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% on nations with large, persistent trade surpluses with the U.S., effective April 9. Trump also declared a national emergency over the U.S. trade deficit. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as “significantly larger than expected,” while The Economist called it the biggest trade policy shock in history.
India was specifically named as facing a 26 percent reciprocal tariff rate, potentially bringing total U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 36 percent, one of the highest rates globally.
Effect on India
Following Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff announcement in early April 2025, there was initially little panic in the Indian stock market. On April 2, 2025, dubbed “Liberation Day”, the Nifty 50 bucked expectations by closing up 0.72% as investors initially shrugged off Trump’s tariff declaration. The following day, April 3, saw the index drift down a modest 0.32%, reflecting a mild correction once the market fully digested the policy details. Despite the headline-grabbing announcement, there was no major panic, underscoring investor confidence that the immediate impact would be limited.
March
Industries Affected: Steel, Aluminum, Automobiles, Auto Parts.
March 26, 2025 - Automobile Tariffs Announced
Trump says he will impose 25 percent tariffs on automobiles and certain automobile parts, such as engines, transmissions, powertrain parts, and electrical components, on April 3, 2025. These auto imports will start being collected on April 3, starting with taxes on fully-imported cars. The tariffs are set to then expand to applicable auto parts in the following weeks, through May 3.
Effect on India
Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on cars and auto parts sent ripples through Indian markets: the Nifty Auto Index initially held steady but plunged 2.4% the next day as investors digested the news. Despite the sell-off, India’s direct auto exports to the US were negligible (just $8.9 million in 2024), though auto parts, worth $2.2 billion or 29% of exports, faced potential disruption. Sentiment, rather than fundamentals, drove the knee-jerk reaction.
March 25, 2025 - Tariffs Targeting Venezuela’s Oil Buyers
Trump says he will place a 25 percent tariff on all imports from any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela, in addition to imposing new tariffs on the South American country itself, starting April 2.
March 12, 2025 - Steel and Aluminum Tariffs Implemented
Trump’s new tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports go into effect. Both metals are now taxed at 25 percent across the board, with Trump’s order to remove steel exemptions and raise aluminum’s levy from his previously imposed 2018 import taxes.
March 4, 2025 - Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China Intensify
Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico go into effect, though he limits the levy to 10 percent on Canadian energy. He also doubles the tariff on all Chinese imports to 20 percent.
February
Industries Affected: Steel & Aluminum.
February 10, 2025 - Steel and Aluminum Tariff Hike Announced
Trump announces plans to hike steel and aluminum tariffs starting March 12. He removes the exemptions from his 2018 tariffs on steel, meaning that all steel imports will be taxed at a minimum of 25 percent, and also raises his 2018 aluminum tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent.
Effect on India
Following Trump's announcement to remove exemptions and implement a flat 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports starting March 12, 2025, the Nifty Metal Index in India declined by 2.64% that day. This drop reflected global investor anxiety about escalating trade tensions and fears of oversupply from redirected exports flooding international markets. However, analysts noted the market reaction was disproportionate to actual exposure, as direct Indian steel exports to the US were minimal, less than 1% of India's total steel exports are shipped to the United States. Consequently, industry officials observed that the broader negative reaction in market valuations was driven more by global sentiment and concerns about price pressures from redirected global steel flows than from any substantial loss of export volume to the US.
February 4, 2025 - Initial Tariffs on China and NAFTA Partners
The U.S. imposes 10 percent tariffs on all Chinese imports and ends duty-free treatment for low-value shipments from China, citing fentanyl and immigration concerns. In response, China announces retaliatory tariffs, export controls, and antitrust probes targeting U.S. firms like Google. Chinese tariffs take effect on February 10.
February 3, 2025 - 30-Day Reprieve for NAFTA Allies
Trump agrees to a 30-day pause on his tariff threats against Mexico and Canada.
February 1, 2025 - The First Strike
Trump signs an executive order to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, with 10 percent on all imports from China and 25 percent on imports from Mexico and Canada, starting February 4.
January
January 20, 2025 - Inauguration Day
In his second inaugural address, Trump declared the beginning of America's "golden age" and laid the groundwork for his aggressive trade policy. Key excerpts from his speech:
"Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens... For this purpose, we are establishing the External Revenue Service to collect all tariffs, duties, and revenues. It will be massive amounts of money pouring into our Treasury, coming from foreign sources."
Trump notably did not impose immediate tariffs on his first day, despite campaign promises of 10-20% tariffs on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods.
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