Weekly Economic Outlook: April 06-April 12, 2026
- Remin Francis I R
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
Let’s start with India. The HSBC India Composite PMI was revised to 57.0 in March 2026, down from 59.9 in February, marking the slowest expansion since November 2022. The services sector continues to do the heavy lifting, while manufacturing is losing some steam. What stands out is that new orders grew at the slowest pace since November 2023, hinting that domestic demand is easing. At the same time, export demand is picking up, which is a positive sign.
The services sector, with a PMI of 57.5, remains strong but is also showing signs of moderation. Interestingly, the ongoing Middle East conflict is starting to show real impact, especially through tourism and demand disruptions. On top of that, cost pressures are rising sharply, with input inflation nearing a four-year high. Businesses are passing on some of these costs, especially in services.
On the policy side, the RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, maintaining a neutral stance. Despite global uncertainties, the central bank remains relatively optimistic, raising FY26 growth to 7.6% while keeping inflation broadly under control. That said, risks from geopolitical tensions and currency pressures remain on the radar.
Globally, the picture is mixed. In the US, services activity slowed (ISM Services PMI at 54), while inflation surprised on the upside. Headline inflation jumped to 3.3%, driven largely by energy costs due to the Iran conflict. Consumer sentiment has taken a hit too, dropping sharply to 47.6, reflecting growing concerns about rising prices and economic uncertainty.
China, on the other hand, is seeing softer inflation (1.0%), indicating weaker demand, while Japan’s consumer confidence has dropped significantly to 33.3, showing stress on households.
One positive for India, forex reserves rose to $697.12 billion, showing strong external stability despite global volatility.
The global economy isn’t slowing sharply, but it is clearly losing momentum. For investors, this is a phase to stay cautious, watch inflation closely, and focus on quality rather than chasing short-term trends.
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