Weekly Economic Outlook: December 22 - December 28, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Dec 29, 2025
- 2 min read
Last week’s data presents a mixed but encouraging picture; some areas remain soft, yet the broader trend suggests resilience, both at home and abroad.
Starting with India’s infrastructure output, November 2025 brought a welcome turnaround. Output rose 1.8% year-on-year, bouncing back from a revised 0.1% decline in October, the first drop in over a year. This matters because infrastructure accounts for nearly 40% of India’s total industrial production. The rebound suggests that the capacity cutbacks following the aggressive hike in US tariffs were short-lived, and goods producers are regaining their footing.
The strength was clearly visible in construction-linked segments. Cement output surged 14.5%, a sharp acceleration from 5.2% in October, while steel grew 6.1% compared to 5.9% earlier. Coal also staged a recovery, expanding 2.1% after contracting -8.5% the previous month. However, not all energy segments joined the party. Crude oil output fell 3.2% (vs -1.2%), and natural gas declined 2.5% (vs -5%), extending their contraction streaks. In short, construction inputs look strong, but energy production remains a weak link.
Turning to the United States, GDP growth surprised on the upside. The economy expanded at an annualized 4.3% in Q3 2025, the fastest pace in two years, up from 3.8% in Q2 and well above forecasts of 3.3%. The engine here was the American consumer. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, compared to 2.5% in Q2, with gains across goods (3.1%) and services (3.7%), especially health care, international travel, information processing equipment, and prescription drugs.
Investment trends were more nuanced. Fixed investment still grew (1% vs 4.4%), supported by equipment (5.4%) and intellectual property products (5.4%), even as structures (-6.3%) and residential investment (-5.1%) stayed weak. Exports rebounded sharply (8.8%), imports declined further (-4.7%), government spending recovered (2.2%), and the drag from inventories eased to -0.22 percentage points.
Finally, on the external stability front, India’s foreign exchange reserves climbed to USD 693,320 million as of December 19, up from USD 688,950 million the previous week. For context, reserves have averaged USD 311,533.01 million since 1998, hit an all-time high of USD 704,890 million in September 2024, and stood at a record low of USD 29,048 million back in September 1998.
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