Weekly Economic Outlook: December 8 - December 14, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- 24 hours ago
- 2 min read
This past week reminded markets that while inflation pressures have eased from their peaks, central banks are still far from declaring victory.
Starting with Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 3.6% for the third straight meeting, in line with expectations. Borrowing costs remain at their lowest since April 2023. The RBA acknowledged that inflation has cooled sharply from 2022 levels, but the recent pickup has caught attention. While some of this appears temporary, policymakers flagged early signs of broader price pressures. With a “little tight” labour market and ongoing hiring challenges, the message was clear: stay cautious and let the data guide the next move.
In the United States, labour market data painted a mixed picture. Job openings rose modestly by 12,000 to 7.670 million in October 2025, following a sharp 431,000 jump in September. Gains were led by trade, transportation and utilities, while professional services and leisure saw declines. These figures, released together after a 43-day government shutdown, suggest demand for labour remains resilient, though uneven across sectors and regions.
China’s inflation story also turned slightly warmer. Annual CPI rose to 0.7% in November from 0.2% in October, the highest since February 2024. Food prices increased for the first time in ten months, while core inflation held steady at 1.2%, its highest in 20 months. However, on a monthly basis, prices dipped 0.1%, marking the first decline in five months, highlighting that recovery remains fragile.
Canada’s central bank stayed put as well, holding rates at 2.25%. With GDP growth at 2.6% in Q3 and inflation at 2.2%, policymakers believe the current stance is appropriate, though global uncertainty and trade-related pressures remain key risks.
The Federal Reserve delivered another 25 bps cut, taking rates to 3.5%- 3.75%, the lowest since 2022. Despite internal disagreement, projections still point to only one more cut in 2026, even as growth forecasts for 2025 (1.7%) and 2026 (2.3%) were revised higher.
Back home, India’s CPI rose to 0.71% YoY in November, up from 0.25% in October, yet remained below the RBI’s lower tolerance band for the third straight month. Food prices continued to fall (-3.91%), keeping overall inflation well contained. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.30%, still below its long-term average.
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