Weekly Economic Outlook: July 21-July 27, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Jul 28
- 2 min read
Last week provided a mixed bag of signals from around the world, with India continuing to show strength despite the global economic environment sending more cautious cues.
Let’s start with home turf. India’s infrastructure output grew 1.7% year-on-year in June, improving from 1.2% in May. The recovery is slow but steady, led by strong performance in steel and cement (both growing at 9.2%). Demand for construction inputs seems solid, and Indian producers are benefiting as China cuts capacity. Refinery products also grew faster at 3.4%. But there were some weak spots: electricity, coal, and crude oil output all contracted, pointing to uneven sectoral performance.
Meanwhile, manufacturing momentum continues to impress. The HSBC Manufacturing PMI jumped to 59.2 in July, the highest in nearly 17.5 years! That’s a big thumbs-up for factory activity. Inventory levels are building up, producers have stronger pricing power, and new orders are rising, though exports have cooled a bit. The Composite PMI dipped slightly to 60.7 but still signals robust overall activity, despite slowing job creation and a dip in business confidence.
Across the ocean, the US housing market continued to cool. Existing home sales fell by 2.7% in June to 3.93 million units, a low not seen since Sept 2024, despite prices hitting a record $435,300. High prices and tighter supply seem to be keeping buyers on the sidelines.
In Europe, the ECB kept rates steady, effectively ending its rate-cutting cycle for now. Inflation is back at its 2% target, but policymakers are treading cautiously amid tariff worries and exchange rate shifts.
China’s industrial sector is still under pressure. Profits dropped 1.8% in H1 2025, with heavy losses in mining and chemicals. Though some bright spots emerged in electronics, autos, and general manufacturing, trade tensions and deflation are dampening the broader picture.
Lastly, US durable goods orders plunged 9.3% in June, led by a sharp fall in aircraft and capital goods. Strip out defence and transportation, and the data looks more stable, but it’s clear that business investment is softening.
Overall, India continues to hold its ground strongly, especially in manufacturing, while global trends remind us that uncertainty is still very much in play. Keep an eye on evolving policy moves and sector-specific shifts in the weeks ahead.
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