Weekly Economic Outlook: June 30-July 6, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Jul 7
- 2 min read
As we approach the end of June and the beginning of July, global markets have witnessed a mix of signals, some signs of stabilisation in major economies, while others hint at ongoing challenges.
In the US, the labour market showed strength. The number of job openings rose to 7.769 million in May, surpassing market expectations. The unemployment rate dropped slightly to 4.1%, signalling stability. However, job growth has been slowing, particularly in government sectors, and tariffs and trade uncertainties could impact hiring in the coming months.
India's economy continues to perform well, with the HSBC India Manufacturing PMI hitting 58.4 in June, the highest since April 2024. This reflects strong output and robust export growth, especially from the US. Services activity also showed a sharp increase, with the HSBC India Services PMI revised to 60.4, signalling continued expansion despite some softening in business sentiment. The Composite PMI surged to 61.0, reflecting broad-based strength in both sectors.
China's economy showed mixed signals this month. The official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, marking the third consecutive month of contraction, though it was the softest in the series. Output grew modestly, supported by a trade deal with the US, while new orders saw their first growth in three months. Despite these positives, employment continued to decline slightly. The Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, driven by a trade truce with the US and efforts to curb deflationary pressures. Still, business confidence dropped to a nine-month low.
In Europe, inflation remains under control. Eurozone CPI rose slightly to 2.0% YoY in June, staying within the European Central Bank's target range. However, inflationary pressures remain in services, while energy prices showed a slight decline. Germany saw a surprising drop in inflation, while Italy and Spain saw modest increases.
Overall, global market sentiment remains cautious. Despite some signs of recovery in certain sectors, inflationary pressures, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks are making businesses wary. As we look ahead, the balance between growth and inflation management will be crucial in determining the course of the global economy.
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