Weekly Economic Outlook: March 29-April 05, 2026
- Remin Francis I R
- Apr 7
- 1 min read
Starting with India, India’s manufacturing momentum slowed in March, with the HSBC Manufacturing PMI easing to 53.9 from 56.9 in February. This marks the weakest improvement in nearly four years. The slowdown seems to be coming from rising cost pressures, intense competition, and uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
Employment saw its fastest growth in seven months, and exports remained strong, showing the best expansion since September 2025. Interestingly, companies are absorbing higher input costs, which have risen to a 43-month high, instead of passing them fully to customers. This reflects both competitive pressure and cautious demand conditions.
Another important development is India’s forex reserves, which declined to $688.06 billion from $698.35 billion. While this is a drop, it comes after touching a record high of $728.49 billion in February 2026, so the overall position remains comfortable.
Moving to the global picture, China showed signs of a rebound. Its Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 from 49.0, returning to expansion territory. Strong government spending and resilient exports, especially linked to AI demand, supported this recovery. However, rising input costs and output prices signal building inflationary pressure.
In Europe, inflation climbed to 2.5% from 1.9%, crossing the ECB’s target. Energy prices surged 4.9%, largely due to geopolitical tensions, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.3%, offering some relief.
The US economy continues to send mixed signals. Job openings fell to 6.882 million, suggesting softer demand, but hiring remained strong with 178K jobs added in March. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and manufacturing stayed resilient with PMI at 52.7. However, rising costs and increasing uncertainty around tariffs and global conflicts are key risks.
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