Weekly Economic Outlook: October 6 - October 12, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Oct 13
- 2 min read
As we reflect on this past week’s economic data, several key indicators highlight both challenges and resilience across global markets.
In India, the HSBC India Composite PMI for September 2025 showed a slight slowdown, dropping to 61.0 from 63.2 in August, marking the lowest level since June. This signals a deceleration in output growth across both manufacturing and services, despite the index still sitting comfortably above the long-term average. New orders saw slower growth, with foreign sales and employment gains also easing. On the inflation front, while manufacturers faced rising input costs and higher selling prices, the service sector experienced slower inflation trends. Overall, both private sector costs and charges grew at their weakest rates in months.
The services sector specifically saw its PMI revised down to 60.9, slightly below the flash estimate of 61.6 and the previous month’s 62.9. While still strong compared to historical norms, the slowdown was driven by weaker growth in new business and foreign sales. On a positive note, business sentiment improved, reaching a six-month high, driven by expectations of greater efficiency and plans to compete on pricing.
India’s foreign exchange reserves decreased modestly to $699.96 billion as of October 3, 2025, down from $700.24 billion the previous week. Despite this dip, reserves are still significantly higher than the long-term average, and well above the lows seen in the late 1990s.
Shifting focus to global markets, Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.1% in September, slightly below expectations. Employment figures showed an increase of 60,400 jobs, with full-time employment rising sharply by 106,100. However, part-time jobs saw a decline, highlighting some sector-specific challenges within the job market.
In the United States, consumer sentiment remained largely unchanged in October, with the University of Michigan’s index at 55.0, almost identical to September’s reading of 55.1. The mixed sentiment reflects cautious optimism, with improvements in personal finances counterbalanced by weaker expectations for future financial conditions. Inflation expectations edged slightly lower, suggesting that consumers are somewhat hopeful about price stability in the near future.
Looking ahead, it will be important to monitor whether these trends continue to play out, especially as global inflation pressures, employment figures, and consumer sentiment shift in the coming months. The markets remain resilient but cautious, with mixed signals emerging from both India and international economies.
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