Weekly Economic Outlook: September 29- October 5, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Oct 6
- 2 min read
The past week has seen some notable economic developments globally, with India and key international markets showing mixed signals on growth, inflation, and manufacturing.
In India, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its key repo rate steady at 5.50% in its October meeting. This was expected, given the easing inflation and the RBI’s cautious approach. Inflation has come down to a manageable 2.6%, and the central bank even raised its GDP growth forecast for FY2025/26 to 6.8%. The outlook remains positive, but it’s clear the RBI is keeping an eye on global trade uncertainties.
India’s industrial production also showed a slight slowdown, expanding by 4% in August, a slight dip from the previous month’s 4.3%. Manufacturing grew by 3.8%, which is still a solid performance but below the expected 5%. On a brighter note, the mining and utility sectors posted stronger growth, with mining expanding by 6%.
Moving to China, the latest Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in September, beating market expectations of 49.7. While factory activity still contracted for the sixth month in a row, the pace of decline slowed, showing some resilience. Output grew at its fastest pace since March, and manufacturers seem to be cautiously optimistic, hoping for more government support as the October plenum approaches. Employment and new orders shrank at a slower pace, signalling that the worst may be behind.
Over in Australia, the Reserve Bank kept interest rates unchanged at 3.6%, with inflation comfortably in the target range. However, concerns around global trade risks and domestic economic uncertainty keep officials on edge. Similarly, the U.S. job market showed some signs of cooling, with job openings rising modestly to 7.23 million in August. While certain sectors like healthcare and hospitality saw growth, construction and federal government openings declined.
In Europe, inflation ticked up slightly to 2.2% in September, driven by slower declines in energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation held steady at 2.3%, still below the European Central Bank’s target.
In the U.S., manufacturing and services both showed signs of weakness, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising only slightly to 49.1, indicating continued contraction. Similarly, the ISM Services PMI fell to 50, signalling stagnation in the services sector. Despite this, there was a slight improvement in customer order backlogs, suggesting that demand may be stabilising.
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