Weekly Economic Outlook: July 14-July 20, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Jul 21
- 2 min read
This past week was packed with economic data from around the globe, and there’s a lot to unpack. Let’s dive into what moved the markets and shaped the economic outlook.
Starting with India, we saw a surprising dip in wholesale inflation. The WPI fell 0.13% year-on-year in June 2025, the first decline since October 2023, led largely by falling food and fuel prices. Vegetables were notably cheaper, onions fell 33.5%, and potatoes dropped 32.7%. Meanwhile, consumer price inflation also cooled to 2.1%, the lowest in over six years, thanks to a steep fall in food prices like vegetables (-19%) and pulses (-11.76%). Inflation isn’t the threat it was last year.
On the global stage, China’s trade numbers stood out. Its trade surplus widened to $114.77 billion in June, beating expectations, as exports rose 5.8%, a sign manufacturers are rushing orders ahead of looming tariff deadlines in August. Importantly, this was the first monthly rise in imports this year, pointing to signs of recovery in domestic demand. However, China’s GDP growth slowed slightly to 5.2% in Q2, its weakest since Q3 last year, with analysts warning of headwinds from deflation, property woes, and trade tensions.
In the US, inflation ticked higher. The headline CPI hit 2.7% in June, up from 2.4% in May, with prices rising across food, transport, and used vehicles. However, core inflation stayed manageable at 2.9%, just shy of forecasts, keeping hopes alive that the Fed might not rush to hike again.
Elsewhere, UK inflation rose to 3.6%, the highest in six months, fueled by transport and food. But a surprise came from the unemployment rate, which jumped to 4.7%, pointing to potential cracks in the job market.
Finally, in Japan, inflation eased to 3.3%, its lowest since November, though food prices, especially rice, which soared 100.2%, remain a concern.
All in all, inflation is cooling in some places and picking up in others, and global growth continues to face mixed signals. For investors and policymakers alike, the next few weeks will be all about watching how demand, trade, and central banks react.
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