Weekly Economic Outlook: September 08-14, 2025
- Remin Francis I R
- Sep 15
- 2 min read
Global markets had plenty to digest last week, ranging from India’s steady economic footing to signs of weakness in the US job market, China’s widening trade surplus, and Europe’s cautious monetary stance. Let’s break it down.
Starting with India, consumer inflation edged up to 2.07% in August 2025, from 1.61% in July. This was the first monthly increase in ten months, but still comfortably within the RBI’s target range. Food prices actually fell by 0.69%, providing some relief, while costs for housing, clothing, and fuel rose at a softer pace. On the external front, India’s foreign exchange reserves climbed to USD 698.27 billion as of September 5, reinforcing its strong buffer against global volatility.
In the US, the spotlight was on jobs and inflation. The Bureau of Labour Statistics made a striking downward revision of 911K jobs for the 12 months through March 2025, the largest cut since 2000. Sectors like leisure, hospitality, retail, and professional services saw the biggest downgrades, raising questions about the true strength of the labour market. At the same time, inflation picked up, with the annual CPI rising to 2.9% in August, the highest since January, driven by food, vehicles, and energy. Core inflation stayed steady at 3.1%, showing that underlying price pressures remain sticky.
China, meanwhile, reported a trade surplus of USD 102.33 billion in August, beating forecasts. Exports rose 4.4%, while imports inched up only 1.3%, pointing to subdued domestic demand. On the consumer side, inflation slipped deeper into negative territory, with CPI down 0.4% YoY, the sharpest drop since February. Food prices were the main drag, though core inflation at 0.9% suggested some underlying demand resilience.
Finally, in Europe, the ECB left interest rates unchanged. Inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, before easing further in 2026. Growth expectations were lifted slightly, and President Christine Lagarde said the risks are now more balanced, even as the central bank sticks to its data-driven approach.
Overall, India looks steady with low inflation and strong reserves, the US shows cracks in jobs with firmer price pressures, China is caught between export strength and weak domestic demand, and Europe is cautiously optimistic.
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